And in February (two months after this story was first published), two scientists unveiled in Nature Communications a new climate-analog mapping project for the US showing that by 2080, the âclimate of most urban areas will shift considerably and become either more akin to contemporary climates hundreds of kilometers away and mainly to the south or will have no modern equivalent.â Play with their fascinating interactive here. These projections tell us that Midwestern cities like Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit will see some of the most dramatic shifts in winter lows — from the low 20s up about 5.5°F to the high 20s. (The same is true for the northern latitudes around the world.). In some cases, the closest match may be hundreds of miles away. But we still have a real shot at limiting it to 2°C or 3°C. As part of our Weather 2050 project, we used the latter scenario to look at what could happen to temperature and precipitation in US cities by the middle of the century. Actual carbon emissions are ⦠The scenario we examined is known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, one standardized set of assumptions of humanity’s trajectory in the coming years. The largest variations under RCP 8.5 emerge around 2100. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in early October reported that it is still possible to limit average global warming to 1.5°C, or 2.7°F — the more ambitious target under the Paris climate agreement — this century. Dozens of other cities are in the throes of a heat wave this week, which forecasters have warned will be “prolonged, dangerous, and potentially deadly.”. The planet is currently emitting 9 gigatons of carbon each year. Here are 10 ways to accelerate progress against climate change and a simple guide to the climate policies that work. What happens to New Hampshire’s tourism if there’s little snow for skiing? “The timing and total rainfall of the rainy season really matter for agriculture,” said Marvel. In some cities, itâll be like moving two states south. For any given city, a few more degrees of heat and a few additional or fewer inches of rain over a season may not seem like much. The mission of the SE 2050 Commitment is to support the SE 2050 Challenge and transform the practice of structural engineering in a way that is holistic, firm-wide, project based, and data-driven. It predicts the world will have warmed on average by 2°C, or 3.6°F, by roughly 2040. We found that by 2050, many US cities may resemble hotter, more southern parts of the country today. With help from researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, we built our analysis on the Localized Constructed Analogs data set, which draws on 32 different global climate models. Our dataset only includes the continental US, but a Texas city could see its climate look more like a city in Mexico, and a Florida city may resemble an island in the Caribbean. (Sorry, Alaska and Hawaii. But emissions over the past 10 years track reasonably well with RCP 8.5, so it’s a useful marker, establishing the boundaries of the worst-case scenario for the climate. But as the IPCC argues, it’s essential that we take every possible step now to reduce emissions to avoid the worst outcomes in the coming decades and centuries. Continued high emissions portend even more alarming changes to the planet by 2100 — with warming upward of 4°C, or 7.2°F. Plastic pollution of the oceans is a major concern but the effect of plastic on climate change has not so far been in the spotlight. You may be thinking an average increase of a few degrees to your summer and winter weather doesn’t seem that bad. In its annual flagship report, the International Renewable Energy Agency, IREA,⦠And America’s biggest cities, with the exception of San Diego, will all see both their summer and winter temperatures shift by more than 3°F on average. The big takeaway: The farther north you go in the US, the faster it’s warming. We can start planning and preparing now for the warmer future. Help us celebrate Voxâs 7th birthday and support our unique mission by making a $7 financial contribution today. That would take an unprecedented international effort. As individuals, we can buy less, fly less, drive less, and eat less meat and dairy. Stacker put together a list of 50 U.S. counties projected to have the most extreme heat days in 2050 with data taken from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . But to do so, we would need to drastically cut emissions in the next 12 years, halving current levels by 2030. (More on our methodology here.). But two climate scientists we spoke to, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick at the University of New South Wales, and Kate Marvel at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, argued it was a realistic scenario for now. So there were many Southern cities for which we donât have matches at all. How high will summer electricity bills be in Frederick, Maryland, when it gets as hot as Tulsa, Oklahoma, is today? We can also see this in the southeastern US: Cities in the South are moving even further south. That means Cleveland will have the climate of a St. Louis suburb more than 500 miles away. Some of the more temperate parts of the US like the California coast will see sharper swings in their weather. RCP 8.5 also doesnât result in a vast difference in climate change estimates compared to other scenarios when looking at the middle of the century. More vegetation will dry out, creating more fuel for wildfires. Where will Phoenix, Arizona, get its water when the Colorado River slows to a trickle? As the climate crisis accelerates, itâs worth asking what to expect if we aggressively cut greenhouse gas emissions now, and what would happen if we do nothing. By 2050, annual temperature and precipitation patterns in Atlanta, Georgia, will look more like Selmont, Alabama, today. Vox turns 7 this month. Last month was the second-hottest April on record on planet Earth. Part of the reason weâre not seeing such big geographic changes in analogous cities in the south is that we donât have enough cities even further south available for comparison. But how much will temperatures in US cities change by 2050? For those who can’t afford to move to cool off from the heat, or find work when local agriculture dries up and fisheries die, these changes will be devastating. This means immediately accelerating all the tools we already are using to decarbonize the energy system, and developing many new ones, like better technologies to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Itâs the difference between wet winter and a white winter. This average helps eliminate year-to-year variations in the climate like El Niño cycles, isolating the changes wrought by human activity. Cities in the eastern US and upper Midwest will likely see larger changes than those in the West. By then, scientists say average global warming since preindustrial levels could be about twice what it is in 2018 — and much more obvious and disruptive. Watch how the climate could change in these US cities by 2050. Carbon Action 2050, just like the low carbon agenda, will not remain static; it is an evolving and constantly-reviewed resource that provides guidance to achieving regulatory targets and beyond. We chose the best available matches with the data we do have. It’s a world you’ll (probably) be living in. So we’ve highlighted the 10 cities whose winters and summers will warm the most and the least by 2050 — compared with your own. To build our comparisons, we averaged daily minimum and maximum temperatures and rainfall patterns for each month over 30 years (1986 to 2015) to establish a climate baseline for cities. Thatâs a move of more than 200 miles, with the average summer high jumping 4.1°F to 92.6°F. Thatâs a distance of about 220 miles as the crow flies, but it means that Scranton will face average summer peaks that are 4.8°F higher and winter temperature low that are 5.5°F higher. Bozeman, Montana; St. Paul, Minnesota; and Chicago will all see their average summer high shift up by nearly 6°F — a much hotter overall summer. If you want to get a sense of what climate change could mean for your city, you might need to take a road trip. But itâs clear that hundreds of cities will have to adapt to changes that could be quite profound for peopleâs way of life. Help us celebrate our mission to empower people through understanding, by making a $7 contribution today. This we know. So much of a city’s culture and economy depends on the particulars of the local climate. The planet as a whole has already warmed by 1°C since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, and we are currently on track to see upward of 2°C of warming by 2040. ), There are some other caveats to this analysis. Weâve mapped a few of the most striking transitions here: As you can see in this map, climate change means cities could move further south in terms of their temperature and rainfall patterns. More homes will need air conditioners as summers become filled with deadly heat waves. In 2020, the earthâs surface temperature was around 0.98 Celsius degrees warmer than the 20th century average. And we already know what to focus on. “What matters for city dwellers is the increase in precipitation extremes.”. Not every part of the country is changing at the same rate. But new climate models show there will be more frequent swings from periods of intense rain to extreme drought, a phenomenon known as weather whiplash. What we do from here on out genuinely matters for our hometowns, our country, and future generations around the world. In the map below, see how the weather (and precipitation) in several Northern cities will look and feel a lot like how Southern cities do today. Heat waves around the country could last up to a month. Scientists have also examined the future of the global climate presuming the world takes moderate to aggressive action to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The average winter low will rise by 5.3°F. Then we looked at how these cities would warm by 2050, again averaging over 30 years (2036 to 2065). But it can be the difference between having enough rain for healthy crops and a drought that kills them. In California, for instance, the average temperature shifts will be more subtle. If you compare cities, you’ll see a lot of variation. We averaged annual temperature and rainfall patterns for 30 years (1986-2015) to establish a climate baseline for cities. In some cities, it’ll be like moving two states south. ), Cities where winters will warm the most by 2050, Cities where winters will warm the least by 2050, Cities where summers will warm the most by 2050, Cities where summers will warm the least by 2050. This in turn could affect the local economy as climate-dependent industries like agriculture or outdoor tourism decline. But there’s more. There are several important caveats to our analysis. Our world is getting warmer. Our analysis, first published in October 2018, shows that in almost every case, the places we live are going to be strikingly warmer in a few decades. When will the threat of devastating hurricanes make it too risky to live on the Gulf Coast? The support provided by governments and institutions, as well as through contributions ... or sticks to business as usual will mean vastly degrees of future warming. The scenario here is built on a standard set of assumptions in climate models known as RCP 8.5. Arctic sea ice hit a monthly record low. Weâre also only comparing cities based on temperature and precipitation, looking at which cities today most closely resemble a given cityâs projected changes by 2050. To answer the question of how much temperatures in US cities will change by 2050, we looked at the average summer high and winter low temperatures in 1,000 cities in the continental US, comparing recorded and modeled temperatures from 1986 to 2015 to projections for 2036 to 2065. We then examined how these cities would warm by 2050, again averaging over 30 years (2036-2065). What you can do to help prevent climate change, according to experts. We generated our city pairs by matching the future annual temperature and rainfall projections to year-round climate patterns today, looking for present and future cities that most closely aligned. Every season in every city and town in America will shift, subtly or drastically, as average temperatures creep up, along with highs and lows. Next year the IPCC will release the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and Climate Change and Land, which looks at how climate change affects land use. 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